Here’s Why the Bitcoin Halving Is NOT Priced In :
Here is why the Bitcoin halving, is simply not priced, we will talk about the appreciation of the price of harving, which we tend to see in the price action of Bitcoin after the events of harving, we will talk about it in much more detail.
We would start with a parabolic phase, of the price action, and the uptrend to new all-time highs, and beyond the search for a new all-time high, in the discovery of prices before culminating in the peak of the bull market of course.
When entering this parabolic phase of a cycle, we tend to see a slowdown, and a consolidation, this is a normal price action, which enters the harving and even months after the harving, because it is all the preparation for the uptrend that emerges afterwards.
So 2016 for example in July 2016, we saw the price fall back in the Haring event, consolidate for a while for actually a few months, before preparing for another movement in a parabolic way, towards new historical highs and beyond, and the same thing happened in 2020.
So we had this black SW crash, based on covid before the harving, then we recovered incredibly well, before experiencing a period of sideways price action, and you can see on the chart, that this sideways action is not even really noticeable.
Because in the larger pattern of the major parabolic uptrend, you can’t really see any lateral squiggles, it just seems that the price action has increased, and the uptrend and it’s this kind of period of consolidation, which precedes a fantastic phenomenal action, parabolic prices on the rise.
And we have seen the same thing happen this year as well, so April 2024 for example, we have already seen fantastic price action, reaching new all-time highs.
But also during the Haring event, we had this ETF catalyst, so we had a double catalyst, which is why we reached new historical highs, already around the Haring event itself.
And this is something, which simply does not happen, during the pre-harving period or around the harving period itself.
So if we think about the old historical highs, we tend to see several months of rising sideways action, prices after the harving before we reach new temporal highs, in a parabolic phase and we have seen it in the past so many times.
But in this cycle, we have reached new historical highs before or around the Haring itself, which is historic and monumental, but it prepares us for the next part of the uptrend, and it is this part of the uptrend, it is the parabolic phase of the uptrend, which we are excited about and looking forward to.
Because this is simply what awaits us in the future of Bitcoin, so you can see, that it is current consolidation, around the old of all times, and it is this consolidation that simply tends to occur after the Haring, as we will see on this graph for example.
So after the Haring, we tend to see a reacumulation phase, so this post-haring reacumulation phase in red, just gives us an idea that lateral price action, in a range tends to occur and it is the same in 2020 just after the Haring.
So this red region, denotes this phase of reaccumulation, and we have seen the reaccumulation take place in two stages.
The first reacumulation range, then the second which all together is this reacumulation phase, before the transition to this green square region, which is the post-Haring parabolic bullish phase of the cycle, and this is something that is also waiting for us, and when it comes to getting out of this reacumulation phase.
We tend to see eruptions from here 160 days after the Haring, we are currently about 126 days after the Hing, which gives us just one month out of one month, before we finally see a potential scenario of bursting, Beyond this High reaccumulation range and historically, it has been 160 days after the Hing, where we are coming out of this reaccumulation phase, which was the case after the 2020 Hing.
But in the Haring 2016 it took 150 days, so whether it was 160 days or 150 days, after giving us a good historical reference, that it should be late September, early October, and October tends to be a fantastic month for Bitcoin.
And the price action, on the upside anyway, and when we talk about this reacumulation range, we can very clearly, that any kind of downward spread below the reacumulation range, has been a fantastic bargain buying opportunity.
And we have seen many ranges of re-accumulation during this wick cycle, down this orange circle highlighting fantastic purchase, good deals too.
We had two downward wicks, in bargain buying opportunities, the same thing, downward wick in a bargain buying opportunity, before reversing into an upward movement, the same thing also at the bottom of the naked market, so we see that this range of re-accumulation, we saw a downward wick.
But even downward deviations at the candle, even a downward wick on this recent wick of capitulation, from a few weeks ago, they are still downward deviations, they change slightly depending on what we have seen before, and we see many of these things opportunities are already appearing as well, in this phase of reacumulation.
We have seen three distinct phases,where we have seen deviations to the downside, we have seen fewer of these opportunities in the past, and maybe that is why we take these opportunities a little more for granted, because there are three of them.
But these downward spreads, are fantastic opportunities to keep for the future and even if we look at previous cycles, for example 2020, we have not really seen downward spreads below the accumulation range, perhaps in this case.
But it was few and far between, and the fact that we see the same thing in these reacumulation ranges, just shows us that we tend to see false breakdowns, in these reacumulation ranges, and that we also see a lot of them in this phase of the cycle.
But it’s really important not to take it for granted, because we could run out of these downward spreads, because we are 126 days after the Haring, getting closer to this potential historical breakout in September at the beginning of October.
We have already progressed by a phenomenal amount, and that we are very close to a potential breakout, we only have this amount of time left and this translates into a month a little more than a month, bringing us closer to this parabolic phase of the cycle.
We are very close to a monumental break, a historical break, but first of all, we have to recover the bottom of this range, and we have seen this happen several times in the past, during this reacumulation range already.
We tend to see downward deviations, and these downward deviations end once we recover this low reaccumulation range, and this allows movements to revisit the High Range, of this reaccumulation range.
And we don’t know how many more releases, will occur at the top of this range, we have seen three general releases, but of course, at some point we have to break above this 70k resistance region, and we probably will.
It’s not clear, if we have one last rejection from the High reaccumulation range, we would be very lucky if we did, but these rejections are really getting very thin, they are really running out, and at some point in the future we will simply enter into an essentially parabolic, upward price action as we have seen in the past and this is something we can prepare for.
I can only prepare by accumulating again, for boring periods on the market where the market stagnates and moves sideways, especially in periods of downward deviation, these are the opportunities to buy bargains, this is this range of re-accumulation, which will allow the next parabolic rally, to new historical highs and beyond.
So the Haring is not taken into account, but not everyone is convinced of it, but I really want to be on the side, where I have a position and I am ready to take advantage of the parabolic rise, which is inevitably coming and which is looming in the future the next few months.
Conclusion :
Cryptocurrencies are going to be fantastic, and it’s better, and it’s worse to be part of this roller coaster.
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